Last week was quite eventful but unfortunately we didn’t get a resolution about direction.
BTC started last week in a similar fashion as a week before – slow start of the day on Monday and a bid up in US session which was later sold off.
Comments from the former SEC Chairman that spot BTC ETF should be approved, contributed to that move up.
Tuesday was quiet in anticipation of CPI on Wednesday.
It came out lower than expected, which was a positive surprise and caused risk-on with equities skyrocketing and most markets moving a lot.
Crypto reaction was however muted with initial strength on BTC sold off quickly.
Later that day, news about moves primarily on US Gov’s but also miners’ wallets and about SEC Gensler not recusing himself were weighing on BTC.
Nonetheless after building a base close to Wednesday low, BTC rotated to the upside on Thursday.
Later in the US session, news hit the wires on the US judge ruling that XRP not being a security, gave a huge boost to the coin and also helped all other crypto assets.
On the back of very positive sentiment, BTC broke yearly highs and got to $31,850 with many stops triggered and long positions opened in the process.
However, there wasn't much follow-through and BTC backed off to finish the day back in the range.
On Friday, there were still no signs of strength visible and eventually BTC sold off leading to a long squeeze.
It not only covered XRP-induced up-move, but also swiped out liquidity below the weekly low (set on Monday).
Then it bounced back up slightly to trade in a very tight range till the end of the week. Eventually, BTC finished last week practically unchanged.
As BTC is still consolidating (for more than 3 weeks now), our game plan stays the same.
It's in the $29,500 - $31,850 range now and as long as we stay within, it is worth focusing on intraday opportunities both from long and short side.
We would need a daily close outside of those two bands to show us the direction.
From the upside, the next important level is $32,500, above which we can expect acceleration of the move up towards $40,000.
On the other hand, below $29,500, we can eye the $27,000 - $27,500 area with some challenges earlier at $29,000 and $28,500.
We are becoming increasingly concerned about the upside as BTC hasn’t been able to break out so far – it only managed to print new ’23 highs intraday two weeks ago and last week, but both were used as selling opportunities to finish each day back in the range.
In addition, both macro and crypto news recently have been supporting the upside - we saw a weakening job market (lower NFP) and softening inflation (lower CPI) lately suggesting the end of tightening cycle, and loosening being closer than anticipated.
At the same time, we’ve had increasingly crypto-positive sentiment caused by spot BTC ETF filings and EDX launch and strengthened further last week by XRP win.
If all of this hasn’t been able to give us a nice push to the upside from the range, what can?
Of course it is still possible and we can even get a technical breakout without any news but something smells fishy.
Let’s see how everything unfolds. The key as always is to be flexible and prepared for any scenario as trading is a probability game and you can never be certain.
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