Not much has changed for BTC in recent weeks. After two legs of up-trend this year, we’ve stayed in consolidation. Sunday’s low at $22,300 worked as a strong support with any weakness towards that level being aggressively bought.
BTC tried to break to the upside on Wednesday, but it wasn’t sustainable and was immediately sold off. Sunday’s attempt failed again. And thus, we are back in the range.
The preference is on being long-biased and to use any intraday weakness as buying opportunities. However, the trend is losing momentum – second leg up much smaller than the first one and failing attempts to push higher now, so we are very cautious.
It may not be worth trying to catch the top. As noted last week, a sustainable break of $22,300 would likely give us a long-awaited retracement/reversal.
As long as we are above, there are no reasons to be a seller unless for a scalp or mean-reversion trade intraday towards $23,000. It’s better to have short term momentum on your side, if trading from the short side.
This week, the main focus will be on FOMC's rate decision and the presser on Wednesday.
The market expectations for FOMC are for 25bps hike. Any surprise should cause huge market moves (50bps – to the downside, no hike – to the upside). After the FOMC update, the market will turn its attention to ECB rate decision on Thursday and then to NFP on Friday.
Buckle up and get ready for an interesting week ahead!
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