As mentioned last week, only unexpected news could move the crypto market - with nothing important in the macro calendar and debt ceiling issues already resolved.
That’s exactly what happened with the SEC's sudden charges against Binance and Coinbase, and their aftermath driving the market last week.
BTC entered last week being pressed down after a spike up on the verge of a new week – quite typical price behavior recently.
Later that day, the news hit the wires about the SEC suing Binance and CZ, causing a market dump.
It got close to an important support area at around $25,300 where BTC found buyers - helped by Binance’s response to SEC and its readiness to fight.
That gave the market a bounce but there was still a lot of absorption from offers, which was limiting any bigger up-moves.
It looked like some big accounts were still in need to sell in anticipation of further weakness.
On Tuesday, we had another selloff and BTC tried to attack $25,300 on SEC charges against Coinbase but after swiping liquidity below Monday’s low, it was bought back up.
That led to aggressive bids up, helped by shorts opened on negative Binance and Coinbase news being squeezed.
BTC covered the whole Monday down-move, cleared liquidity above Monday’s high and got to an important resistance level around $27,500 where it started to drift down slowly.
More negative news came out about the SEC asking for an emergency order to freeze Binance US assets globally.
On top of that, Robinhood was considering delisting $SOL, $MATIC and $ADA.
On Friday, Binance suspended USD deposits and planned a pause of USD withdrawals.
Robinhood later confirmed its delistings - that initially had limited impact, but on Saturday BTC dumped, following a much bigger sell-off in alts.
$25,300 was again limiting the downside. BTC finished the week down, but with that support still holding.
Even though we had negative news, $25,300 still works as a strong support and we have a choppy market with poor liquidity in the $25,300 - $27,500 range.
It’s still advisable to trade from level to level and not to be too biased and stay flexible.
We have sharp moves that are reversed or retraced in a big part later, so even if you are on the right side of the market, it’s important to pay yourself on overextensions around important levels as the market changes quickly.
On one hand, big players who used to sit on the sidelines are forced to act, causing sudden big moves.
On the other hand, those FOMOing in (usually overleveraged) are fueling big counter moves in this illiquid market.
Don’t be the one making emotional decisions.
Instead be calm, selective and have ‘what if scenarios’ worked out to stay in control regardless of what happens.
Key levels to watch now are $25,300 from the downside and $27,500 from the upside.
On the way to the upside, we have minor challenges at $26,200, $26,500 and $26,800. If we get above $27,500, keep an eye on $28,000 and $28,500.
$25,300 marks the high of the 9-month range that was finally broken on Mar 13th and since then, it’s been working as major support with BTC being bouncy there.
If broken down, the next level is at $24,000.
As always, have a great trading week ahead!
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