BTC is showing signs of being oversold in the short term

Hot projects + Market overview

I. Mainstream exchange news

• Binance Pay will gradually stop supporting Pay ID.
• Binance Mining Pool now supports the KASPA Network (KAS).
• OKX will begin pre-trading for the DOGS/USDT futures contracts on August 5.
• Coinbase plans to launch a cryptocurrency index fund Coinbase 500.

II. Mainstream projects and trending events

• Japanese government bond futures triggered a circuit breaker on August 6.
• JupiterDAO has passed a proposal to cut the JUP token supply by 30%.
• The Uniswap community has launched a temperature check proposal to deploy Uniswap v3 on X Layer.
• The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act, introduced by US Senator Cynthia Lummis, has been officially submitted to Congress and is now under review by the Senate Banking Committee.
• Proprietary trading firm Jump Trading might be offloading ETH, having recently redeemed $410 million worth of wstETH in batches and moved it to centralized exchanges.
• Decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket's Paris Olympics pool has surpassed $10 million in total volume.
• Permissionless layer 1 blockchain Flow will undergo the Crescendo upgrade on September 4 to provide full EVM equivalence.
• US July unemployment data triggered the Sahm Rule, signaling a potential economic recession.
• The Solana-based memecoin issuance platform pump.fun has generated over $80 million in revenue.

III. Funding news

• ​​Hack VC has led the pre-seed funding round for Chateau Capital, a protocol that tokenizes traditional financial assets like private equity and fund investments for DeFi participants.

IV. Regulatory news

• An Indian court has reaffirmed that cryptocurrency trading is not illegal and has granted bail to Yes World CEO.
• Hong Kong legislator Lam Lam has emphasized the need to accelerate the implementation of stablecoins denominated in HKD and backed by diversified assets.
• An Indian think tank has suggested the government reconsider its cryptocurrency tax policies to prevent capital outflows.

V. Popular projects 

Market Overview

BTC fell below its crucial support level of $53,485, reaching a low of $52,300. This suggests that the previous low point of $53,485 may not hold, and the decline from the peak of $73,777 could continue as the market searches for a new bottom. 

Technically, BTC shows signs of being oversold in the short term, but uncertainty in the US stock market means that it’s not clear if the lowest point has been reached.

Key support levels to watch are $51,500 and $48,000.

Key External Factors:

1. US Unemployment Rate: The US July unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021, triggering the Sahm Rule, which indicates a potential economic recession. This has raised fears of an economic downturn, impacting BTC's price even before US stock markets opened.

2. Berkshire Hathaway's Apple Stock Sale: Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has disclosed in its Q2 2024 financial report, which includes details that it reduced its Apple holdings from 790 million to 400 million shares, a 49% decrease. This increased Berkshire's cash reserves to a record $276.9 billion. While the direct impact on Apple may be limited, this move could significantly affect broader market sentiment.

3. Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: The market anticipates the US Federal Reserve may cut rates up to three times in 2024, starting in September. The consensus is for 25 basis points per cut, with some expecting more aggressive cuts. These expectations have already been priced in, leading to a sharp decline in US stocks and a tightening of market liquidity, adversely affecting BTC and ETH.

4. ETH Selling Pressure: Market makers like Jump and GSR have been selling ETH, adding to the selling pressure post-ETF approval. This has reduced market sentiment and new project launches, making existing assets less appealing.

Current Sentiment: 

The market is experiencing fear and uncertainty. Attention is now on the US stock market performance on August 5. If recession fears materialize, further stock adjustments may occur. If the adjustments are not too drastic, a buying opportunity for BTC could arise. 

US BTC Spot ETF Update - August 2

Overall Data:

Total Net Inflows: $17.51 billion

Daily Net Outflows: $237 million

Single-Day Turnover: $2.34 billion

Proportion of BTC’s Market Value: 4.63%

Breakdown by ETF:

GBTC:

Net Asset Value: $14.98 billion

Single-Day Net Outflows: $45.95 million

Cumulative Net Outflows: $19.06 billion

Single-Day Turnover: $313 million

IBIT:

Net Asset Value: $21.57 billion

Single-Day Net Inflows: $42.81 million

Cumulative Net Inflows: $20.1 billion

Single-Day Turnover: $1.29 billion

FBTC:

Net Asset Value: $11.16 billion

Single-Day Net Outflows: $104 million

Cumulative Net Inflows: $9.8 billion

Single-Day Turnover: $351 million

BITB:

Net Asset Value: $2.38 billion

Single-Day Net Outflows: $29.38 million

Cumulative Net Inflows: $2.04 billion

Single-Day Turnover: $125 million

ETH Spot ETF Updates - August 2

Overall Data:

Total Net Outflows: $510 million

Daily Net Outflows: $54.27 million

Single-Day Turnover: $438 million

Proportion of ETH‘s Market Value: 2.29%

Breakdown by ETF:

ETHE:

Net Asset Value: $6.97 billion

Single-Day Net Outflows: $61.43 million

Cumulative Net Outflows: $2.12 billion

Single-Day Turnover: $194 million

ETHW:

Net Asset Value: $255 million

Single-Day Net Inflows: $0

Cumulative Net Inflows: $287 million

Single-Day Turnover: $15.49 million

FETH:

Net Asset Value: $273 million

Single-Day Net Inflows: $6.02 million

Cumulative Net Inflows: $297 million

Single-Day Turnover: $23.33 million

ETHA:

Net Asset Value: $656 million

Single-Day Net Inflows: $0

Cumulative Net Inflows: $712 million

Single-Day Turnover: $129 million

On-chain Daily

1. Mog: Mog is a memecoin on the Ethereum chain inspired by the Milady OG community, rumored to be associated with Milady community members.

Current Price: $0.000001202  

Historical High: $0.000002462  

24-Hour Change: -11.17%  

Current Market Value: $469 million

Official Twitter: https://x.com/MogCoinEth

2. Neiro: Neiro is a memecoin on the Ethereum chain featuring the new dog of Doge dog's owner. It exists on multiple blockchains with variations like uppercase NEIRO and lowercase Neiro, which exhibit opposite price movements.

Current Price: $0.00002310  

Historical High: Achieved today  

24-Hour Change: +121%  

Current Market Value: $9.3 million

Official Twitter: https://x.com/NEIROETHCTO

3. HARRIS: HARRIS is a memecoin on the Ethereum chain, featuring the likeness of US Vice President Kamala Harris, who is a contender for potentially becoming the first female US President.

Current Price: $0.00002372  

Historical High: $0.00004586  

24-Hour Change: -32.84%  

Current Market Value: $9.9 million

Official Twitter: https://x.com/KamalaHarrisERC

4. Neiro (Solana): Neiro is a memecoin on the Solana chain, featuring the new dog of the late Kabosu. It contrasts with the Ethereum NEIRO by showing inverse price movements.

Current Price: $0.01542  

Historical High: $0.1236  

24-Hour Change: +25.95%  

Current Market Value: $15.4 million

Official Twitter:https://x.com/neirosolanaa

5. FWOG: FWOG is a memecoin on the Solana chain featuring a long-legged frog character. It emerged as a community-driven project after the $flog rug pull, with no central developer and support from Milady and Pudgy Penguins community members.

Current Price: $0.01501  

Historical High: $0.04307  

24-Hour Change: -40.66%  

Current Market Value: $14.6 million

Official Twitter:https://x.com/solfwog 

6. WOLF: WOLF is a memecoin on the Solana chain featuring Landwolf, a character from Matt Furie's Boy’s Club comic series known for its degenerate behavior.

Current Price: $0.007118  

Historical High: $0.02353  

24-Hour Change: -9.66%  

Current Market Value: $71.2 million

Official Twitter: https://x.com/TheBoysClubWolf

Daily Rune Observation

Gas Fee Change:

The current BTC transaction fee is 4 satoshis/byte, with fees remaining persistently low.

Today's Popular Projects:

ALETHEIAS•AGORA

Fully Minted

Market Value: $1.89 million

24-Hour Trading Volume: $16,633

24-Hour Change: +13.76%

Holding Addresses: 658

BLOCKS•OF•BITCOIN

Fully Minted

Market Value: $288,000

24-Hour Trading Volume: $17,408

24-Hour Change: +1.88%

Holding Addresses: 882

NIKOLA•TESLA•GOD

Fully Minted

Market Value: $13.12 million

24-Hour Trading Volume: $48,542

24-Hour Change: -4.05%

Holding Addresses: 1,425

Top Rune Projects Tracking:

DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON: Rune #3, airdrop Runes of Runestone

Current Price: 3.9899 Sats

24-Hour Change: -21.36%

Current Market Value: 4,019 BTC

BAMK•OF•NAKAMOTO•DOLLAR: A synthetic dollar protocol built on Bitcoin L1

Current Price: 5.4 Sats

24-Hour Change: -7.52%

Current Market Value: 1,139 BTC

RSIC•GENESIS•RUNE: Rune #8, from the renowned RSIC inscription mining project

Current Price: 3.4 Sats

24-Hour Change: -17.19%

Current Market Value: 716 BTC

Performances of Today's Top Three Tracks

SocialFi: Overall Sector Decline of 10.2%

Gainers:

1. GFT (Gifto)  

   Gifto, launched in 2017 on Binance Launchpad, allows anyone to create and share crypto gifts, offering services like wallets, chain games, and consumer apps.  

   - 24-Hour Change: +7.5%  

   - Current Price: $0.0302  

   - Market Cap: $30.5M  

   - 24-Hour Trading Volume: $60M  

2. GAL  

   This project helps developers and projects utilize credential data to build better products and communities, allowing the creation, distribution, and gamification of NFTs using custom on-chain data.  

   - 24-Hour Change: 0%  

   - Current Price: $2.93  

   - Market Cap: $346M  

   - 24-Hour Trading Volume: $123K  

3. CHEEL  

   Launched by NUTSon in February 2023, CHEEL rewards users for engaging with short video content.  

   - 24-Hour Change: -0.79%  

   - Current Price: $20.3  

   - Market Cap: $1.15B  

   - 24-Hour Trading Volume: $6M  

NFT: Overall Sector Decline of 13.6%

Gainers:

1. Talk  

   A multi-chain NFT suite offering wallet, Drops, and Studio services. It enables creators and users (like K-Pop stars, artists, and influencers) to experience the entire NFT lifecycle.  

   - 24-Hour Change: 0%  

   - Current Price: $0.305  

   - Market Cap: $7.1M  

   - 24-Hour Trading Volume: $96.7K  

2. DOME (Everdome)  

   A hyper-realistic metaverse bringing brands and users together in a digital life that mirrors the real-world experience.  

   - 24-Hour Change: -0.7%  

   - Current Price: $0.000839  

   - Market Cap: $22.6M  

   - 24-Hour Trading Volume: $483K  

3. MPLX (Metaplex)  

   Since its launch in August 2021, Metaplex has become a cornerstone of the Solana ecosystem, minting over 20 million NFTs.  

   - 24-Hour Change: -4.06%  

   - Current Price: $0.281  

   - Market Cap: $154M  

   - 24-Hour Trading Volume: $754K  

Layer 1: Overall Sector Decline of 14.6%

Gainers:

1. FX  

   A scalable EVM-compatible chain known for its X5 feature supporting cross-chain operations. It’s a prominent project from China.  

   - 24-Hour Change: +7.23%  

   - Current Price: $0.158  

   - Market Cap: $118M  

   - 24-Hour Trading Volume: $770K  

2. LYX (LUKSO)  

   A blockchain infrastructure providing standards and solutions for physical and digital consumer goods.  

   - 24-Hour Change: +5.8%  

   - Current Price: $1.56  

   - Market Cap: $47.3M  

   - 24-Hour Trading Volume: $418K  

3. GO (GoChain)  

   A fast, low-cost, and green blockchain utilizing a new consensus algorithm called Proof of Reputation.  

   - 24-Hour Change: +1.4%  

   - Current Price: $0.0031  

   - Market Cap: $4M  

   - 24-Hour Trading Volume: $6.35K

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