What a year it has been! At the start of 2023, Bitcoin was valued at less than 17.000 dollars, Ethereum was priced at less than 1200 dollars, and Solana might as well have been free (priced below $10). In the time between then and now, major asset managers filed for Bitcoin Spot ETFs, Ripple won the legal battle against the SEC, and the entire crypto market doubled in market capitalization. We’ve come a long way.
In that same timeframe, WOO has published roughly 50 of my articles – covering trading education, market analyses and everything in between. In today’s article, we look back on the year that’s behind us, before taking a look at what I expect next.
2023 was a great success
As discussed, 2023 was a good year for crypto holders. We ended 2022 at rock bottom after the collapse of FTX, the last domino to fall in a series of crypto hacks, scams and market crashes. It was right around that time (after the collapse of FTX) that I started buying back into the market. I was not too sure whether the bottom was in, but getting to buy sub-20k Bitcoin again was an opportunity I could not pass on.
2023 came along, and the Bull market started right off the bat, pushing Bitcoin prices 45% higher in January alone. At that point it was clear that the FTX-induced nuke pushed prices deeper than the market thought was reasonable – and the bottom was probably in.
I joined the WOO team, quickly deploying a bunch of educational content to help the next generation of crypto heads navigate the new market cycle. We discussed how to deal with FOMO, the (at the time) impact of the Fed’s interest rate hikes on the market, Quantitative Easing, and many more educational topics, before slowly pivoting towards market commentary and analysis.
My first heavily opinionated article argued the case for a new bullish cycle, at the time many people believed we were reaching the end of a bear-market rally into the 30k resistance. I argued the range between 25.000 and 30.000 dollars was merely an accumulation range, and that the hopes of a Bitcoin Spot ETF, a potential Grayscale court victory & the return of looser monetary policy would eventually lead to expansion beyond that key resistance around 30.000 dollars.
Quoting from the end of that article: “All in all, these narratives form the basis of why I am so bullish on Bitcoin for the foreseeable future. It may take months for these narratives to materialize, but so long as we stay below 30.000 dollars, I will further grow my spot bags. I am confident we will eventually break out, and head on towards fresh all time highs”. I couldn’t have said it better, even with the knowledge we have now.
It ended up taking another three months before Bitcoin broke 30.000 dollars, plenty of time to accumulate sizable bags even if you started buying only after reading the article.
In addition to growing my spot bags I used those three months to advocate against active trading (the majority that tries loses money after all) and to discuss how altcoins may be your best bet at making it in this market. I stand by both of those positions to this day.
All in all, I’m quite in tune with this market cycle. I was able to get in early, continued to accumulate until we broke 30.000 dollars, and am now comfortably enjoying the ride.
Expectations for 2024
So what’s next? The narratives we discussed earlier are still in play, or have strengthened further in the past six months. Grayscale won their case against the SEC – boosting the likelihood of a Bitcoin spot ETF being approved in 2024. In fact, the majority seems to believe the first ETFs may be approved as early as this January.
Judging from the way the CME Bitcoin Futures have consistently traded over a premium in the past month, I would expect the launch of those ETFs to be a success. The ETFs would allow new capital to flow into the market, thus bringing additional buying pressure to Bitcoin, and crypto as a whole.
I expect economic policy will continue to loosen as nations recover from the strong inflationary headwinds that plagued their economies, which should also bring more upwards pressure to Bitcoin.
Furthermore, the next Bitcoin halving is estimated to take place around the end of April, an event that has historically been dubbed the official kick-off of Bitcoin’s famous bull markets.
All in all, I believe we are on our way to new all-time highs. While I like to entertain a price target of approximately $185.000 – time will have to tell how high this cycle pushes. I’m not going to hold my breath for it either, but will slowly scale out as the cycle progresses, reducing my risk as the market becomes riskier.
That’s precisely what I believe should be your main focus from here: preparing an exit plan. The market will become crazier, more volatile & will eventually reach prices that we’ve never seen before. Your job is to plan ahead, so that you’re not left holding the bag at the end of the cycle. We’ll publish an article discussing exit strategies in more detail in the coming weeks, so stay tuned for that.
Looking back, 2023 has been a great year. We’ve been on the right side of the market, and learned a lot of new things about crypto trading. The bull market is here, and it does not look like it wants to stop anytime soon.
Moving forward, take fewer trades, focus on your winners, and be sure to craft that exit strategy before we reach more frothy market conditions.
Good luck & happy 2024!
Author's Disclaimer: This article is based on my limited knowledge and experience. It has been written for informational purposes only. It should not be construed as trading or investment advice in any shape or form.
Editor's note: CryptoJelleNL provides insights into the cryptocurrency industry. He has been actively participating in financial markets for over 5 years, primarily focusing on long-term investments in the stock market and crypto. While he watches the returns of those investments roll in, he writes articles for multiple platforms. From now on, he will be contributing his insights for WOO as well.
Check out his twitter: twitter.com/cryptojellenl
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