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BTC looks healthy; future high point expected around $100k ~ $140k

BTC looks healthy; future high point expected around $100k ~ $140k

March 11, 2024

I. Mainstream exchange news

  • Coinbase will no longer support PlayDapp (PLA) trading.
  • Binance will support the STRAX token swap and redenomination plan.
  • The USD capacity of the Lightning Network has reached a new all-time high of $324.98 million.
  • The inaugural LFG vote on Jupiter has concluded, selecting Zeus Network and SharkyFi as the first projects to launch.
  • Dogwifhat community users plan to raise $650,000 to place an advertisement on the Las Vegas Sphere for a week.
  • BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF holds more Bitcoin than MicroStrategy.
  • Circle issued an additional 250 million USDC on the Solana network.
  • Tether issued 2 billion USDT on the Ethereum network on March 10th.
  • CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" said the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 96%.
  • The founder of MakerDAO has bought 1,008 MKR and has cleared all SHIB.
  • Grayscale and Coinbase are in discussions with the US SEC about Ethereum spot ETFs.
  • CyberConnect has launched a social L2 network, Cyber, with restaking functionality.
  • Bitcoin's pledge chain, BounceBit, has officially launched its test network, introducing dual-token pledges and other features.
  • Mirror L2 announced that it will open a test network this week.

III. Funding news

  • JDI Group and Tensor have jointly launched a $20 million Phoenix AI ecology fund.
  • Web3 security company GoPlus Security completed a $4 million funding round, participated by Binance Labs.
  • Web3 application interface service provider Kravata completed a $3.6 million seed round.
  • Orion Protocol announced that it has received a strategic investment from DWF Labs and will soon remodel its brand as Lumia.

IV. Regulatory news

  • The chairman of the US SEC insists that the crypto sector is "rife with abuse and scams."
  • The Hong Kong Monetary Authority plans to set up a central bank digital currency sandbox at the wholesale level by the end of June.

Market overview

Last week, Bitcoin sustained its bullish momentum, with its peak reaching an all-time high of $69,900. Given the market's current uptrend, it's critical to be prepared for potential sudden drops when Bitcoin approaches these peak levels. Standout coins, notably those in the AI, GameFi, and meme categories, have seen substantial gains. As Bitcoin is poised to push through this ceiling, it's expected to continue pulling capital from the broader market. During key phases like Bitcoin breakthroughs and post-breakthrough recalibrations, portfolio readjustments may be worth considering.

With the Cancun upgrade scheduled for March 13th, Ethereum's trend is relatively stronger, and it is a teeterboard to some extent with SOL in terms of fund allocation. Despite trailing behind the top projects within its ecosystem in terms of growth, SOL is expected to make up ground as on-chain user trading activity intensifies. This surge in demand for ETH and SOL will reliably instigate a price increase, potentially offering a positive long-term outlook.

Key BTC indicator data

  • The Ahr999 index currently stands at 1.75. A reading below 0.45 indicates a potential bottoming out for BTC, while a range between 0.45 and 1.2 suggests it's a suitable time for regular investments in BTC. In 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin's peaks coincided with Ahr999 index values of 9.25 and 3.6, respectively. 
  • The PI cycle top indicators show that the 111-day moving average (DMA) for Bitcoin is $45,895, while the double the 350-day moving average (DMAx2) stands at $68,604. When the 111-day average price of BTC surpasses twice the 350-day average price, it typically indicates a potential short-term market bubble. At the moment, we are still significantly below this threshold. 
  • The BTC rainbow chart serves as a long-term valuation tool, employing a logarithmic growth curve to forecast potential price movements for Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin's price falls within the 'consider dollar-cost averaging' range. In previous years, Bitcoin's peak values aligned with different intervals on the Rainbow Chart: 'maximum bubble' in 2017, 'FOMO intensifying' in 2021, and 'Is this a bubble?' in 2022. To enter the 'Is this a bubble?' phase, Bitcoin would need to reach the $196,000 mark. 
  • The top escape index also referred to as the 2-year MA Multiplier, utilizes the 2-year (equivalent to 730 days) moving average line, represented by the green line, along with five times the product of this moving average, depicted by the red line. When the price falls below the green line, it suggests a favorable buying opportunity, while surpassing the red line during a price uptrend signals a potential selling time. Currently, the green line sits at $29,267, and the red line at $146,338, indicating Bitcoin's price positioning in the middle range.

BTC is relatively healthy from all indicators' points of view. Although the price is close to a historical high, it is still in a middle position compared with past data. A reasonable prediction suggests that the future high point for BTC could fall within the range of $100,000 to $140,000.

JLP TVL reaches record $236 million

Jupiter has introduced JLP, a token for liquidity providers. The assets within the pool act as the counterparty for traders. When traders want to establish leveraged positions, they borrow tokens from the pool. As compensation, the liquidity providers generate profits from these leveraged trading operations as well as from loan fees and swap earnings. JLP users receive a direct allotment of 70% of all transaction fees generated. 

The present Annual Percentage Yield (APY) of JLP stands at 184.55%. For users seeking exposure to BTC, ETH, and SOL and wishing to earn certain returns, JLP offers a viable choice, thereby not only enjoying the value appreciation of major assets but also earning transaction fees from users. Moreover, JLP can also be pledged on platforms such as Kamino, Marginfi, and DFlow to gain additional profits and points. Potential incentives for future token airdrops are also available.

BounceBit officially launched its testnet

BounceBit officially launched its testnet on March 8th, featuring the rollout of BounceClub events and BBScan, a browser intended to monitor all activities on the BounceBit network. The platform currently allows its users to stake the native token of BounceBit, $BB, and $BBTC, which is BTC's universal mapping on BounceBit. Presently, the total value locked (TVL) of the entire ecosystem stands at $660 million with a user count of 44,000.

The content above is neither a recommendation for investment and trading strategies nor does it constitute an investment offer, solicitation, or recommendation of any product or service. The content is for informational sharing purposes only. Anyone who makes or changes the investment decision based on the content shall undertake the result or loss by himself/herself.

The content of this document has been translated into different languages and shared throughout different platforms. In case of any discrepancy or inconsistency between different posts caused by mistranslations, the English version on our official website shall prevail.

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